University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro says August indicators show Rhode Island in the early stages of emerging from a shallow recession, and called its neutral Current Conditions Index reading of 50 favorable.
Six of the index's 12 measures improved from a year earlier. August was the fifth month out of six with a reading of at least 50, according to Lardaro's assessment released by URI Oct. 26.
Retail sales rose 4.2% and total manufacturing hours increased 3.4%. Permits for single-unit homes rose 16.5%, while new unemployment claims, a measure related to layoffs, fell 16.4%.
Other measures were weaker. Benefits exhaustions, an indicator of long-term unemployment, rose 13.3%. Manufacturing wages declined 2.6%, and employment-services jobs fell 1.5%.
The recession assessment is Lardaro's reading of the indicators, not a separate official determination.
The university's release concerns August conditions even though it was issued in late October. The index, which Lardaro created, follows 12 indicators. He treats 50 as a neutral value.