Connecticut's new revenue forecast shows the state's main tax collections holding flat in the budget year that starts in 2027. The forecast, issued Nov. 10 by the Office of Policy and Management and the legislature's Office of Fiscal Analysis, puts taxes after refunds at $23.40 billion in fiscal 2027 and the same $23.40 billion in fiscal 2028.

State officials describe the picture differently. Gov. Ned Lamont said in a statement that the projections "reinforce the progress Connecticut has made," and Office of Policy and Management Secretary Joshua Wojcik said the forecast "shows continued steady revenue growth." The forecast tables show growth that is uneven: nearly none in fiscal 2028, then 3.1 percent in fiscal 2029 and 3.6 percent in fiscal 2030.

What is falling and what is rising

Total General Fund revenues are projected at $25,651.7 million in fiscal 2027 and $25,810.2 million in fiscal 2028, an increase of 0.6 percent by our arithmetic. They then reach $26,618.5 million in fiscal 2029 and $27,580.0 million in fiscal 2030, according to the forecast tables.

Between fiscal 2027 and 2028, the tables show these changes in individual taxes:

  • Income-tax withholding rises from $9,864.0 million to $10,238.0 million, up 3.8 percent.

  • Personal income tax payments listed as "Estimates and Finals" fall from $4,398.3 million to $4,201.4 million, down 4.5 percent.

  • The corporation tax falls from $1,502.6 million to $1,322.7 million, down 12 percent, or about $180 million.

  • The pass-through entity tax falls from $2,635.6 million to $2,556.5 million, down 3.0 percent.

The sales and use tax grows from $5,560.3 million to $5,706.3 million, up 2.6 percent. Rising withholding and sales tax collections offset those declines, and taxes after refunds end up unchanged.

Wojcik also cautioned that the projections "are estimates and should be viewed with care," citing federal policy decisions, global conflicts and market conditions.

What happens next

The budget office will release its Fiscal Accountability Report on Nov. 20, 2026. A presentation to the legislature's Appropriations Committee and its Finance, Revenue and Bonding Committee is expected to be scheduled in December. The next consensus forecast is due Jan. 15, 2027.