New Hampshire's races for governor and the 1st Congressional District were statistically tied in a University of New Hampshire Survey Center release September 24, while Democrat Chris Pappas held a narrow lead in the Senate contest.
The university described Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte and Democratic challenger Cinde Warmington as statistically tied. It used the same description for Democrat Stefany Shaheen and Republican Anthony DiLorenzo in the 1st District.
In the 2nd District, the center reported a comfortable lead for incumbent Democratic Rep. Maggie Goodlander over Republican Lily Tang Williams. The findings show different levels of competition across the state's congressional races.
A separate New York Times/Siena release the same day put Pappas at 50% and Republican John E. Sununu at 45% in the Senate race. Siena Research Institute Director Don Levy described the five-point gap as a slim lead.
Statistical ties indicate that the survey does not clearly separate the candidates after accounting for its uncertainty. They should not be read as evidence that the candidates would receive identical vote totals.
The UNH release also reported that a slim majority approved of Ayotte's job performance and a plurality supported capping local education spending. The findings do not establish why respondents chose a candidate.
Sources:
https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1005/
https://sri.siena.edu/2026/09/24/nytimes-siena-poll-of-likely-voters/