NOAA's winter outlook favors above-average temperatures across much of the eastern United States, including New England. The agency expects a very strong El Nino to influence the coming season.
The agency's Oct. 15 outlook covers December 2026 through February 2027. It also favors wetter-than-average conditions along the East Coast.
El Nino is a pattern of unusually warm water in the tropical Pacific that can change atmospheric circulation, including the jet stream that helps steer storms.
The outlook concerns the odds of the three-month average being warmer, colder, wetter or drier than usual. A warmer seasonal average can still include cold spells. A wetter outlook also does not translate directly into a snowfall forecast: precipitation can fall as rain or snow depending on temperatures during individual storms.
For weekend plans, use a local short-range forecast. The winter outlook is a broad seasonal guide, not a forecast for Oct. 17-18.
Graphic: NOAA / Climate Prediction Center / Public domain, Public domain, U.S. government work.